Week 10: Performance Evaluation and Ensemble ModelsNovember 12, 2018
Democratic strategist David Axelrod predicted that poll performance “is going to prompt another round of soul-searching about whether and how you can poll accurately, because a lot of these races that were blowouts tonight or apparently blowouts tonight polled as tough races.”
Democratic pollster Andrew Baumann called the pre-election polls “quite accurate, particularly for a midterm that ended up being totally different than any previous midterm.”
|Actual Dem||Actual Rep|
Based on 538 deluxe model for 11/05/18.
Rank all observations by the predicted probability class, and chart the cummulative share of actual true values captured by the first x observations, where x ranges from 1 to the total number of observations.
Demonstrates model's ability to outperform other (random) choices at positive prediction across decision thresholds.
Plot the true positive rate against the false positive rate at every possible threshold from highest to lowest.
Demonstrates model's ability to outperform other (random) choices across decision thresholds while weighing false positives against false negatives.
Total volume of area under the ROC curve.Sci-kit Learn can calculate this for you.
Ensemble methods use multiple learning algorithms to obtain better predictive performance than could be obtained from any of the constituent learning algorithms alone.
Random Forests construct a multitude of decision trees at training time and outputting the class that is the mode of the predicted classes among each tree.
Gradient Boosting produces a prediction model in the form of an ensemble of weak prediction models and then generalizes them by allowing optimization of an arbitrary loss function.